It certainly can be but it’s not as simple as always picking the opposite side to the public. Every situation is different and every bet is different. The key is to have a feel for when public opinion is being influenced by factors that won’t actually affect the outcome of the game. Go back and brush up on the common factors like media hype, star players and team reputaion.

TIP: The bigger the match or event, the more hype is generated around it by the media. When public opinion is being swayed by a media narrative, there is often the possibility to bet against the public effectively.

Betting Against the Public in Soccer

Soccer betting is becoming a more and more popular market to fade the public. The Premier League in England has 760 games per year. The MLS in the United States is growing every year and is attracting some of the biggest names in the sport like Wayne Rooney and Zlatan Ibrahimovic. There are a number of ways to fade the public in soccer.

While it is possible to bet against the spread in soccer, because it is a low scoring game compared with many others this is not always a popular bet. Backing home underdogs in the Premier League is a good option to bet against the public. The Premier League is a complicated and long competition and the popularity of the big names like Manchester United can distort the odds when the play on the road against a mid-table underdog.

Another good option to bet against the public in soccer is Over/Under betting.

Betting Against the Public in Football

Betting on the NFL is the most popular market in the USA. The more people betting in a market, the more squares there are. There are plenty of people who know very little about betting or even about football who like to place a sociable bet on NFL games. This means that there is usually a great opportunity to bet against the public.

The scoring system of the NFL means that there are key numbers to think about when betting. The most important number is 3. The most likely margin of victory in an NFL game is 3 points. Games that go into ovetime or games that are tied in the fourth quarter are more likely to be decided by a field goal, which is worth 3 points.

A converted touchdown, which is worth 7 points means that 7 is another key number in NFL. If one team is chasing a game and needs a touchdown, the other can aim to run down the clock, meaning that the margin of victory will be between 4-7 (as a field goal would not have been enough to tie the game).

When there is a lot of action on high scoring NFL games, it can a good bet to buy points on or off a 3 point or 7 point spread.

Buying Points to Bet Against the Public

Buying points is an added option in point spread betting. It allows you to pay more to skew the spread in your favor, by giving away fewer points on the favourite or receiving even more on the underdog.

For example:

  • If the New England Patriots are -3 against the Green Bay Packers at +3, you can buy half a point to make the Patriots favourite at -2.5, moving them off a 3 point spread.
  • Your potential winnings will be lower if you buy points, but it can be worth it to move to an optimal spread.

Buying points can be a good option for maximizing your chance to win when betting against public opinion.

Betting Against the Public in Baseball

Casual bettors in baseball are likely to be swayed by the top teams and especially by top pitchers and batters. This creates value on underdogs.

The best opportunities for betting against the public in baseball are often found when a big team or a high profile player are attracting a lot of action. This means that betting on home underdogs can be profitable.

Because there are not as many points scored in basketball or football, moneyline bets are more common in baseball.

Betting Against the Public in Hockey

Hockey, like soccer, is a comparatively low scoring game. This means that money line bets are more common than point spread bets. Betting on underdogs on the money line is good strategy for betting against the public in hockey.

When betting on the money line it is important to remember that winning every bet tends not to be necessary to be profitable if you bet on underdogs. For example, you may place three money line bets on three separate NHL games. Depending on the odds it may be possible to lose two, win one and still make a profit. This is because money line bets on the underdog can have longer odds and bigger payouts than point spread bets.

Like soccer, over/under total bets can also be profitable and like soccer, the public’s tendency to bet on high scoring games can distort the odds.

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