Betting against the public is a powerful sports betting strategy and when it’s used correctly it can help your bottom line in a big way.

The world is full of casual, largely uniformed sports fans making casual, uninformed bets. The idea that these casual fans are wrong a lot of the time is the cornerstone of betting against the public.

Do you think you know more than the average sports fan? Do you have a good feel for when popular perception is off? Do you regularly notice when there is a media bias overhyping an outcome? By looking for key indicators, you can find fantastic opportunities to bet against public opinion.

What is Betting Against the Public?

In simple terms, betting against the public means betting against what the majority of people think will happen. Another term for this is “fading” the public. People vote with their money and whatever outcome is being backed most heavily represents what the majority of the betting public thinks will happen.

When you notice that the action in a bet is particularly one-sided, that the vast majority of people are betting on one outcome, it means there is likely to be value in betting on the opposite outcome.

The thinking behind this sports betting strategy starts with the fact that the public as a whole isn’t right all the time. If they were, a lot more people would be successful sports bettors. People who believe in betting against the public believe that the majority of bettors often get their predictions wrong. Furthermore, betting against the public requires the ability to see when the betting public is off-base.

Key Terms

  • “Fading” the public is another word for betting against what the public thinks will happen
  • “Squares” is a term used to describe casual bettors.
  • “Sharps” are experienced bettors who typically make money from betting
  • “Action” is another word for a bet, or the money being placed on a bet
  • “The favourite” is the team or player most likely to win, according to the oods.
  • “The underdog” is the team or player most likely to lose, according to the odds.

How Does It Work?

Disregarding ties where you get your money back, every bet can split into two possible outcomes. For example, those outcomes could be:

  • Win or lose?
  • Will there be overtime, yes or no?
  • Will there be over 48.5 points, yes or no?
  • Will there be a red card, yes or no?

There are tons of bets like this available on every game, inevery sport.

Whichever side of the bet has the most action (that is, the most money being bet on it) represents the prevailing public perception. If you think public perception is off, which statistically speaking it generally is, you should bet on the opposite outcome.

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